SAJC JC2 Prelim 2024 - P2 Insert

STANDREW’SJUNIORCOLLEGEJC2PreliminaryExamination Name: _____________________________________( ) CivicsGroup: ____________________ GENERALPAPER 8881/02 PAPER2 27 th AUGUST2024 1hour 30minutes INSERT READTHESEINSTRUCTIONSFIRST ThisInsert containsthepassagefor Paper 2 1

Thisquestionpaperconsistsof6printedpages. 2

Passage1:WangFengpresentsanoptimisticstoryofpopulationdecline. 1 Theshoehasdropped.Thebigone.China,themostpopulouscountryontheplanetfor centuriesmayhaveonlyaroundhalfof the1.41billionpeopleit hasnow,accordingtoU.N.projections,andmayalreadyhavebeenovertakenbyIndia.Thenewshasbeenseenastheharbingerofa demographicandeconomictimebombthatwillstraintheworld’scapacitytosupportageingpopulations. 52 Butthealarmistwarningsareoftensimplisticandpremature.Theglassisatleasthalffull.Shrinkingpopulationsareusuallypartofa natural,inevitableprocess,andratherthanfocusexcessivelyon concernslikelabourshortagesandpensionsupport,weneedtolookatthebrighterspotsforourworld.3 China,SouthKoreaandJapan,forinstance,arenowallinpopulationdecline;thisisdueinparttorapidincreasesinincome,employmentandeducation.ThenumberofSouthKoreanwomenwhowentontopostsecondaryeducationrosefrom6percentin 1980to morethan90percentby2020;ChinaandJapanalsohaveseenbiggains.Lowerbirthratesreflectgreaterpersonalandreproductivefreedom,suchasthechoiceto stayunmarried;higherpay;andmoreprofessionalopportunitiesforwomeninthesenations. 10 15 4 Averageworldlifeexpectancyhasincreasedfrom51yearsin 1960to73in2019andevenmoreso in China,from51 in 1962to 78 in 2019.Increasesof thatmagnitudereshapelivesandopenupopportunitiesunimaginablewhenlifespanswereshorter, suchasworkersremainingproductivelaterinlifeandgrowingmarketsfor olderconsumersin areasliketourism,nutritionalsupplementsandmedicaldevices,amongothers. 20 5 Fewerpeopleontheplanet,ofcourse,mayreducehumanity’s ecologicalfootprintand competitionfor finiteresources.Therecouldevenbe greaterpeaceasgovernmentsareforcedtochoosebetweenspendingonmilitaryequipmentoronpensions.Andas richnationscometo relymoreon immigrantsfrompoorercountries,thosemigrantsgaingreateraccessto theglobalprosperitycurrentlyconcentratedinthedevelopedworld. 25 6 Thereisnoreasontheworld’s populationmustkeepgrowingorevenremainlevel.Andjustasearlierpanicledtoharmfulpoliciesin Chinaandelsewhere,effortstoraisefertility—whichmayprovefutile—riskviewingwomenonceagainasbirthmachines. 30 7 Globalpopulationwillinevitablydecline.Ratherthantrytoreversethat,weneedtoembraceitandadapt. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/30/opinion/china-world-population-decline.html 3

Passage2:NiallFergusondiscussesthedetrimentsofpopulationdecline. 1 Notmanypeopleforesawtheglobalfertilitycollapse.Nordidjustaboutanyoneexpectit tohappeneverywhere.AndI cannotrecalla singlepunditpredictingjusthowlowit wouldgoinsomecountries.InSouthKoreathetotalfertilityrate(TFR)in2023is estimatedto havebeen0.72.In Europethereis nolongera differencebetweenRomanCatholicandProtestantcountries.Italy’s currentTFRislowerthanEngland’s. Noris therea differencebetweenChristianandIslamiccivilizations—thosegreathistoricalentitieswhoseclashesthe historianSamuelHuntingtonworriedabout. 5 2 Whatarethedriversof thegreatfertilityslump?Onetheoryis thatsocietiesprogressup the hierarchyof needsfrom physicalsurvivalto emotionalself-actualisation,andas theydo so,rearingchildrengetsshortshriftbecausepeoplepursueother, moreindividualistaims.Peoplefindotherwaystofindmeaninginlife. 10 3 Anotherinterpretationgivestheagencytowomen,emphasisingthatfertilitydropsas femaleeducationandemploymentrise.Overthepastcentury, beginninginWesternEuropeandNorthAmerica,a risingproportionof womenhaveenteredhighereducationandtheskilledlabourforce.Improvededucationhasalsogivenwomengreaterautonomywithinrelationships,a betterunderstandingofcontraception,andgreaterinputintofamilyplanning.Manyhaveoptedto delaybecomingmotherstopursuetheircareers. 15 4 Yetanotherwayoflookingattheproblemisthat,afteritsinitialkids-in-cotton-millsphase,theindustrialrevolutionreducedtheimportanceofchildrenasa sourceofunskilledlabour. Ascountriesdevelopeconomically, familiesinvestmorein theirchildren,providingthemwithbettereducation,whichincreasesthecostofraisingeachindividualchild.Whilesomecountrieshaveintroducedpro-natalistpoliciessuchaschildbenefits,parentalleave,andsubsidisedchildcaretocounterlowbirthrates,theeffectivenessofthesemeasureshasbeenmixedatbest. 20 255 Onesignificantfactorthatis oftenoverlookedis risingenvironmentalconcerns.Somecoupleschoosetohavefewerchildren,ornoneatall,citingthegrimglobaloutlookowingtoovercrowdedcitiesandanalreadystrainedecosystem.6 Culturalchangehasalsoplayeda part—thestressandbusynessofmodernlife,thesupplyofonlineentertainmentthatmaycompetewithsexualactivity, elevatedratesof depressionandanxietyamongyoungadults,thedetrimentaleffectofsmartphonesonreal-worldhumaninteractions,andthelackofappealtowomenof“hookingup”. 30 7 Visionsof humanextinctionarehardtostomach,buttherealityis thata sub-2.1globalTFRis a powerfulhistoricalforce.It iscoming.Andthereisnothingwecandotostopit. 35 4

Passage3:Ademographerlamentstherecenttrendsinpopulationgrowth. 1 Asa demographerwatchingtheglobaltrendswithakeeneye,it'simpossiblenottoseethegatheringstormcloudsoverhumanity'sfutureduetodecliningbirthrates.Whilesomeheraldthedeclineasanopportunityforenvironmentalandeconomicrenewal,thisperspectiveglossesoverthegravechallengesthatlieahead.2 Firstly, theageingpopulationcrisiscannotbeoverstated.Withfeweryoungpeopletosupportanincreasinglyelderlypopulation,thestrainonhealthcareandpensionsystemswillbeunprecedented.CountrieslikeJapanandItalyarealreadygrapplingwiththesechallenges,offeringaglimpseintoafuturewheretheyouthareburdenedwiththecareoftheelderly, potentiallyleadingtoadeclineinqualityoflifeforall. 5 3 Moreover, thedeclineinpopulationhasfar-reachingimplicationsforglobalsecurity.Historically, nationswith youthfulpopulationshavebeenmorevibrantandinnovative.A globaldeclinecouldleadto a stagnationin innovation,impactingeconomicgrowthand,byextension,globalstability. Withouta youngworkforcetodrivechange,we may find ourselvesin a worldthat is bothliterallyandmetaphoricallygrey. 10 4 Associetalprioritiesshift,thetraditionalfocusonchildbearingisoftendeprioritised.Forinstance,in urbancentreswherecareer-orientedlifestylespredominate,manyoptto delayor foregohavingchildren.Furthermore,ashobbiesandcommunityinvolvementgain importance,thesebecomesignificantsourcesof personalsatisfactionand identity, offeringrich, fulfillingexperiencesthat mighthavetraditionallybeenfoundinraisingafamily. 15 205 Theenvironmentalbenefitsofa smallerhumanfootprintarealsomisleading.Whilefewerpeoplemightmeanlessstrainon resources,it couldalsoleadto lessmotivationfor sustainableinnovation.Withoutthepressureof supportinga largepopulation,the urgencyto find solutionsfor sustainablelivingmay wane,paradoxicallyendangeringourplanetfurther. 256 Theloomingpopulationdeclineisnotmerelyademographicshiftbutaharbingerofprofoundchangestothefabricofsociety. It challengesustorethinkhowwevalueandorganiseourcommunities,economies,andlives.Weshouldnotfallintothetrapofviewingdemographiccollapsethroughrose-tintedlenses. 5