SAJC Prelim P1 ans

2025 SAJC H2 Prelims P1 Suggested Approaches (ESSAYS) 2. To what extent did protectionism pose a more serious challenge to the global economy from the 1970s to the 1990s than the debt crisis? Theme / Topic: Post-1945 Global Economy — Challenges to International Economic Stability Background Info on the Topic  From 1971: Collapse of Bretton Woods fixed exchange system → greater exchange rate volatility.  Oil shocks (1973, 1979) → inflation, balance of payment issues, and stimulated protectionist pressures (e.g., US steel quotas, Japanese auto VERs).  Newly Industrialised Economies (NIEs) such as South Korea and Taiwan were rising exporters, provoking protectionist backlash.  1980s: Latin American nations (e.g., Mexico 1982, Brazil 1987, defaults in repayment of loans) triggered a global debt crisis, prompting IMF/World Bank interventions. Time Frame(s) 1970s to 1990s Definition of Key Words 1. More serious – suggests that this is a binary (2 factors) question and essay to focus on severity and impact as the main criteria for comparison. 2. Protectionism — Government actions like tariƯs, quotas, and non-tariƯ barriers to restrict imports. 3. Debt Crisis — Situation where countries could not meet debt obligations, leading to financial instability and IMF-led bailouts. Essay Scope with the Given and Alternative factor  Given Factor: Protectionism  Alternate Factor: Debt Crisis Criteria for Evaluation / Lines of Argument  Scope: How many countries/sectors were aƯected.

 Severity/DiƯiculty of Resolution: How deeply the factor threatened systemic stability and how feasible solutions were. Stand Protectionism posed a serious challenge by aƯecting many economies, but the debt crisis was ultimately more serious because its severity and lack of immediate solutions destabilised the global financial system. Body Paragraph 1 – Protectionism Topic Sentence: Protectionism posed a serious challenge by its broad scope, disrupting trade flows across many regions.  Evidence/Explanation: Post-oil shock stagflation led the US and Japan to adopt tariƯs and quotas; US steel tariƯs and Japan’s Voluntary Export Restraints on automobiles aƯected global supply chains.  Examples: Asian NIEs (South Korea, Taiwan) faced US textile and electronics quotas; OPEC price hikes incentivised countries to shield domestic industries.  Evaluation/Link: Despite its breadth, protectionism often coexisted with ongoing liberalisation (e.g., GATT Tokyo Round), indicating it was disruptive but manageable. Body Paragraph 2 – Debt Crisis Topic Sentence: The debt crisis was severe, with few immediate solutions and significant systemic risk.  Evidence/Explanation: Latin American states borrowed heavily during petrodollar recycling; rising US interest rates (Volcker Shock) made repayment impossible.  Examples: Mexico’s 1982 default threatened major US and European banks; Brazil and Argentina followed, prompting IMF conditional loans. Asian